Monday, April 28, 2008

IST Theory - What is the half-life of time?

The half-life of a quantity whose value decreases with time
is the interval required for the quantity to decay to half
of its initial value.

In options, the half-life of time is the interval required
for the time premium of an option's value to decay to half
of its initial value.

The initial value here is the value at a certain point
in time from when I track the option. This is typically
30 days to expiry for options expiring at the end of
the next month, or 60 for those expiring at the end
of the month after next.

The time premium of an option decays slowly when the
option is far from expiry. The decay speeds up when
the option nears expiry. This is the point at which
the option becomes interesting to me.

As expiry nears, options lose most of their time premium.
Sometimes, looming volatility events cause some of the
time premium to remain till close to expiry. Also, at
this time, liquidity vanishes. This is the time I
lose interest in the option.

The sum of my technique is as follows -

1. Sell options in strangle form about 30 days to expiry.
2. Close them out in the last week of expiry.
3. Pocket the time premium.

Specifics -

1. I use only European options on the e-mini S&P for
liquidity and certainty. Liquidity pertains to the
underlying, which is the most liquid future in the
world. Certainty pertains to the characteristics of
European options, which cannot be exercised before
the expiry date, and then following strict rules
( for example, the buyer cannot exercise a out of
the money option, unlike in the American series ).

2. European options expire on the last trading day
of the month. This is good for me in many ways.

3. I never hold a position on the day of expiry. This
is tantamount to suicide. Markets have a tendency
to make volatile moves on the last trading day of
the month. Since liquidity has completely vanished,
you will be stuck playing a game of roulette.

Thanks for your viewership!

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