Brief Looks - Those darned financials!

Ok, so it has been a while since I wrote the inaugural post
of what I hope will become a well-known trading blog.

In the meantime, I have thought a bit about what this blog
should be. My initial goal of showing how one can profit
consistently by selling options through the concept of
the "half-life of time" remains the main goal of this
blog. But there are certain other things.

Firstly, I rely on my techniques to make a living. I feel
a little wierded out to disclose it to the world. I have
been trading for over 5 years and have tried various
techniques, markets, vehicles. I have finally hit upon
something which works for me. I am sure it will work for
anyone who understands it and puts it into practise
with discipline. But why should I let the cat out of
the bag?

Secondly, I do a lot of research. I feel that I can write
on those. Thats more like a regular trading blog. The
research yields insights, something which are mine alone.
I do read a lot but I never follow others' advise or
technical points. This is the first rule of trading.

"Figure things out for yourself"

So lets start with something out of my research for this
weekend. I will not go into all the issues. I just want
to highlight a little something called the P&F chart
for the financial select sector spider XLF. Here is
the diagram -



Now this is one of the few sectors that has still not
printed a bullish reversal. I will remain sceptical of
the intermediate-term bullish scenario till I see something
change here.

Why? The financials are hugely weighted in the S&P500 and
have been singularly responsible for the plight of that
index. The quarterly performance of the index looks like
it will print about -14%. But there are sectors like
tech, energy and industrials which are actually printing
positive growth! Think about that. Below is the market
carpet of the S&P500 which shows the deep influence of
the financial sector. It shows the performances of the
respective sectors over the last 2 months.



For the week coming up, here is my short summary of the
S&P500.

=1398 rsi 61.70, 50dma 1345 up, 200dma 1436 sloping down at 15pts/mo
low 1257 on 3/17
1325, 1365, 1380 support, 1405, 1415 resistance,
RSI has broken out, headed to 70? MACD has broken out too.
200WMA at 1306, looks like 5 waves are over and we will see a
3 wave up to 200DMA/50WMA at 1430-1440;
weekly RSI at 51!
Fib levels- 1378.88 rejected!claimed! 1416.54 target? 1454.19

Thanks for your viewership!