chart with the swing low of March 23 marked;
notice the level has been broken down to 1.5255
in the small box at top left which gives current
day's numbers.
The Euro did not make it up to the 1.5650 resistance zone.
As I had posted, the other alternative was that it would
go down to the March 23 swing low of 1.5273. Well, with
the ECB President Trichet ( a renowned hawk and a market
mover ) due to take an interest rate decision today, the
markets are getting a little jumpy. For long Trichet has
highlighted inflation as the primary concern, and the
rate bias as hawkish. It seems the bank may change its
dialog today, though the rate itself will likely remain
at 4%. If it does, and there is some concern expressed
towards growth, then the Euro may be sold off across the
board.
Lets see how we may be able to trade this. As I had
mentioned earlier, a break of the March 23 swing low would
set up a short trade which will be taken when the 50%
Fibonacci level at 1.52 is broken for the 2nd time.
What seems likely is that the nervous markets will
trade the Euro down thru that level post the ECB decision.
We will then wait for a bounce, and see if it fails.
If it does, and trades back down below 1.52, we will
go short.
Since this is some distance away, we will enumerate
stops and targets when ( and if ) it happens.
Thanks for your viewership.
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